Heat waves have ceased to be isolated incidents and have become part of the daily life in the MediterraneanIn Valencia, an academic study suggests that they could lead to practically endless summers if the pollution that is heating the planet is not reduced.
The analysis, developed by teams from the Universitat Politènica de València, detects a clear increase in the frequency and duration of these events and warns of a nearly continuous “heat season” in high-emission scenarios, with direct impacts on health and urban life.
What the UPV research reveals
The study, authored by researchers from IIAMA and the Department of Urban Planning and published in the journal Urban Climate, examines the evolution of extreme heat from the late 1970s to projections for the end of the century. In recent decades, the following have been recorded: two more episodes per decade and the average duration of each wave has gone from less than ten days to almost 25.
According to the lead author, Ana Fernández-Garza, summers are getting longer and heat waves are becoming more intense; if the current trend continues, Valencia could experience a string of consecutive heat waves. up to six months with high thermal risk and reach heat index values exceeding 50°C in the most extreme episodes.
Three emissions scenarios and what they imply
Even with a drastic reduction in greenhouse gases, the most favorable scenario would still double the average number of heat waves compared to the current situation, with episodes of about two weeks and highs above 40°C.
If the mitigation is partial, the study projects between six and eight waves During the summer, some periods last for more than 30 consecutive days, and the heat index could reach around 45°C at the worst times.
In the most pessimistic scenario, without significant emissions cuts, the warm season would run from April to November, with prolonged heat waves and heat index values that could exceed 50°C, totaling nearly 300 days of extreme heat per year.
Humidity, heat index and public health
The work incorporates the heat index —which combines temperature and humidity— to assess the real impact on people. With higher relative humidity, the thermal stress and the risk of heat stroke and physiological imbalances increases.
The most exposed groups are elderly people, children and outdoor workerswho suffer earlier from a loss of ability to regulate body temperature. Recent series have also emphasized tropical and torrid nights, a factor that exacerbates sleep deprivation and mortality increases associated with heat, according to national monitoring systems.
Urban heat islands: differences between neighborhoods
Urban characteristics influence surface temperature and available air. Related research led by the UPV itself has identified thermal contrasts of up to 6°C between neighborhoods of Valencia, with areas such as Vara de Quart, Benicalap, El Calvari or Torrefiel among the most vulnerable due to their configuration and lack of shade and vegetation.
These urban heat islands They intensify the risks in prolonged waves, especially when they coincide with high humidity and weak wind, by hindering heat dissipation during the night.
Urban and health adaptation measures
The team proposes a package of priority actions to reduce the risk: more trees and green spaces that improve urban ventilation, create shaded corridors and recover cool spaces.
Architecture and materials also matter: they are recommended cold covers and reflective coatings that reduce heat absorption, along with nature-based solutions and permeable pavements that mitigate daytime heating.
On the social and health front, the need is emphasized to climate shelters universal access, community networks to identify vulnerable people, emergency plans and early warning systems specific to prolonged heat waves.
A European framework for resilience
The study is part of the European project The HUT (Human-Tech Nexus – Building a Safe Haven to Cope with Climate Extremes), funded by Horizon Europe, which promotes technological and social solutions to live safely with extreme weather in European cities.
In parallel, international scientific literature anticipates significant increases in average global temperature throughout the century, reinforcing the urgency of mitigate emissions and accelerate local adaptation in Mediterranean areas such as Valencia.
Everything suggests that, without profound changes, the Valencian capital could go from long summers to a almost permanent hot seasonWith urban planning, public health measures and emissions reduction, the city has room to mitigate the impacts and protect the most vulnerable population.
