The projections of different meteorological services and international institutions They agree that 2026 will rank among the hottest years since systematic measurements began. Far from being an isolated finding, this forecast confirms a prolonged spell of extreme heat which has been breaking record after record on a global scale.
According to the climate models used by the Met Office, the UK's meteorological agency, the average temperature of the planet During 2026, it will remain clearly above pre-industrial levels. The projected figures reaffirm that global warming driven by human activity It has already become the new normal of the climate system.
What do the forecasts predict for 2026?
The latest estimates suggest that the global average temperature in 2026 It will be located around 1,46 ºC above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900), within a range that goes approximately from 1,34 ºC to 1,58 ºCThis margin would place next year among the four warmest ever recorded, Near the all-time high recently observed.
That projected value is only slightly below the record of about 1,55 ° C of global anomaly recorded in 2024, considered until now the highest level documented. The evolution of the data series, which begins in the mid-19th century, shows a increasingly sharp rise in temperaturesespecially since the end of the 20th century.
As explained Adam Scaife, head of the Met Office's global forecasting team, internal analyses indicate that The last three years have already exceeded the 1,4°C threshold above pre-industrial levels, and all indications are that 2026 will become the fourth consecutive year above that benchmark. Before this recent jump, global estimates did not exceed 1,3°C.
Other experts from the same organization, such as Nick Dunstone, remember that 2024 marked the first temporary exceedance of 1,5°C of average global warming. Calculations for 2026 suggest that this mark could be repeated at some point during the year, highlighting the speed at which the world is approaching the 1,5°C limit which is used as a key reference in international climate policy.
Even taking into account natural variability—including the possible influence of phases such as La niña, which tend to exert a certain cooling effect—, the models show that the heat accumulated in the oceans and atmosphere It will continue to prevail. That's why scientists insist that, although there may be ups and downs from year to year, The overall trend is clearly still upward..
The role of greenhouse gases and human activity
La Organization of the United Nations and World Meteorological Organization They agree that this rise in global temperature is explained, fundamentally, by the increase in human-caused greenhouse gasesCarbon dioxide (CO2) and methane They are the main culprits behind this imbalance.
These compounds come primarily from the burning of fossil fuels —gasoline and diesel in transportation, coal and gas in electricity generation and heating—, as well as industry, intensive agriculture, and certain processes associated with land use. The accumulation of these gases in the atmosphere reinforces the natural greenhouse effect and causes the planet to retain more energy than it emits into space.
According to the most recent report on the state of the global climate, prepared under the umbrella of the WMOthe current level of medium warm-up It is already situated around 1,37 ºC compared to the period 1850-1900This is based on data from the last decade and projections for the period 2015-2034. This means that the remaining margin to the 1,5°C threshold is getting narrower.
Scientists point out that It's not just about abstract figuresEach additional tenth of a degree has tangible consequences in the form of longer lasting heat wavesProlonged droughts, more aggressive forest fires, or torrential rainfall concentrated in brief episodes. Europe, and in particular the Mediterranean area—with Spain on the front line—are among the most exposed regions to these changes.
Combining Record temperatures and increasingly warmer oceans It also increases the probability of chain of extreme eventsThe scientific community insists that the warming observed in recent years can no longer be attributed solely to natural climate variability, but is deeply linked to the increase in anthropogenic emissions.
The 1,5°C limit and the pressure on the Paris Agreement
The scenario painted by the projections for 2026 also calls into question the international commitments assumed within the framework of Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015 during COP21 and in force since 2016. This treaty, signed by 194 parties between countries and the European Union, sets as its main objective to maintain the increase in average global temperature clearly below 2°C and make efforts to limit it to 1,5 ° C.
To achieve this, each State must submit and periodically update its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)which include the measures planned to reduce emissions, improve energy efficiency, promote renewable energy and strengthen adaptation to climate impactsThese roadmaps are reviewed, in principle, every five years, with the idea of ​​progressively increasing the level of ambition.
The agreement also includes climate finance mechanisms intended to support developing countries, as well as monitoring and transparency systems to assess the degree of compliance. According to the UN, this is a long-term framework designed to guide global efforts towards a development model compatible with sustainable development. net zero emissions in the second half of the century.
The first one was held in 2023 global balance (global stocktake), an evaluation exercise that examined the progress made since the signing of the treaty. The conclusions were clear: current policies remain insufficient to keep warming below agreed limitsand a significant acceleration of emissions cuts is needed across all economic sectors.
The fact that 2026 is shaping up to be one of the hottest years on record—with the possibility of once again exceeding, even if only briefly, the threshold of 1,5ºC of warming— reinforces the idea that the window for meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement is rapidly closing. For Europe and Spain, aligned with the climate strategies of the European UnionThis implies reviewing goals, bringing forward deadlines, and deploying more forceful policies. decarbonization and adaptation.
Risks of exceeding the 1,5°C threshold and what could happen in Europe and Spain
The scientific community has been warning for years that exceeding the 1,5°C limiteven temporarily, significantly increases the probability of severe impactsProjections indicate an increase in both the frequency and intensity of extreme weather eventsThis will complicate planning in areas as diverse as public health, agriculture, water management, and infrastructure.
In the case of Europe, the latest climate reports underline that the region is warming up at a rate above the world averageThe Mediterranean area, where Spain is located, has been identified as a true climate change "hotspot," with increasingly longer summersMore frequent heat waves and tropical nights that make it difficult to rest and aggravate heat-related illnesses.
Projections for the next decade indicate that Spain and other southern European countries will face increased risks of drought, descent of available water resources and added pressure on terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Agriculture, livestock farming, tourism, and energy production—key sectors in the Spanish economy—will be forced to adapt to a warmer and more changing context.
Repeatedly exceeding the 1,5°C threshold also reduces the margin of adaptation of many natural systemsEcosystems such as Mediterranean forests, wetlands or high mountain areas could experience changes that are difficult to reverse, with loss of biodiversity and alteration of essential ecosystem services, such as the regulation of the water cycle or protection against floods.
In social terms, extreme heat waves affect particularly hard the most vulnerable groups: older people, people with fewer resources, workers exposed to the outdoors, or neighborhoods with fewer green spaces. This type of impact, already seen in recent summers in Spain and other European countries, is expected to intensify in a world where Years like 2026 will become less and less exceptional..
Given this scenario, the fact that 2026 is projected as one of the hottest years ever recorded It's not just a striking statistic, but yet another warning of the direction the global climate is takingThe projected temperatures, the pressure on the 1,5°C limit, and the intensification of extreme weather events reinforce the need to accelerate emissions reductions, strengthen adaptation, and ensure that commitments such as those in the Paris Agreement translate into concrete policies, both in Europe and Spain and in the rest of the world.
