Lately there is a lot of talk about how the temperatures will be in 2017. It is also said that 2016 and 2014 have been the hottest since temperatures are recorded and 2017 is also expected to be very hot, though not the hottest. You can learn more about how climate change could affect temperature patterns in the future in our article on temperature increase at the end of the century.
Many people will wonder how meteorologists are able to predict these temperatures if they have not yet arrived. How do you know the temperatures that will be in 2017 if the year has just begun?
Very warm years
Since there are temperature records of the year 1880, the 16 years of this second millennium, they are the highest. Last year, it was the third year in a row that a new annual record in world temperature has been reached.
A controversy about weather forecasting arises from meteorology. Because, despite the abnormally high temperatures ever recorded, there is still skepticism against the anthropogenic origin of high temperatures and global warming. The root of this controversy arises from the inability of meteorologists to predict well the weather in three or four days. They take this as proof that scientists cannot predict Earth's climate years or even decades from now. You can read more about it here. the implications of climate change.
If this is so, why are scientists confident they can predict above-average temperatures months in advance, and how do climate predictions differ from weather forecasts? You may also be interested in: the difference between weather and climate.
The movements that the atmosphere has
Normally, to predict the weather several days in advance, the evolution of pressure patterns in atmospheric systems. Although the weather forecast two weeks in advance has improved enormously, because atmospheric systems do not persist for long, they become less accurate.
Predicting the formation of low-pressure systems presents difficulties, as a movement of just 75 kilometers east or west of the forecast track can mean the difference between a blizzard, a windy and rainy storm, or a false alarm. A similar situation applies to summer storms and rainfall forecasts. To better understand the impact of climate on our regions, it's helpful to read about the climate in the Balearic Islands for the future.
However, this does not mean that We should not rely on strong storm warnings and weather forecasts.
Weather predictions
Unlike forecasts based on weather systems, climate predictions for temperatures and precipitation use completely different data. This relates to how clouds are formed and predicted.
To predict these weather variables months, years, or decades in advance, they are based on the variations of the oceans, solar variations, volcanic eruptions and, of course, the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. These variables evolve and change over months and years, unlike atmospheric systems, which can change in a matter of hours or days. It's also important to consider how these changes can influence extreme situations, as mentioned in our article on the future effects of climate change.
An important factor that varies from a few months to a year is the phenomenon of El Niño. The periodic warming of ocean temperatures across the tropical Pacific. This pattern of ocean warming and its associated effects on the atmosphere exerts a strong influence beyond the tropics that can be factored into climate predictions. This phenomenon can also be related to Volcanic eruptions in a warmer future.
Human and natural factors
In addition to the effects of the oceans and bodies of water, other natural factors such as volcanic eruptions are known to affect the rate of global warming. But it should be mentioned that, so far, the largest increase in global temperatures is due to the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) caused by humans and the industrial revolution. In this context, it is relevant to study how humanity is facing these challenges, as detailed in our publication on the challenges of climate change.
Therefore, warming projections on broader time scales (multiple decades or more) are based on climate model simulations and our understanding of how sensitive the climate system is to future increases in atmospheric GHG concentrations. These models show that global warming in the not too distant future will be dominated by increased GHG levels compared to increases in natural temperatures or by ocean masses or volcanic eruptions.
