As we have discussed in previous articles, climate change increases the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as droughts. Long and intense droughts threaten to deplete our water reserves and this puts us in danger.
Both for industrial use, such as agriculture and for human consumption and supply, water is too important and valuable a resource. However, the impacts of climate change in the Spanish basins may be greater than those contemplated in the Hydrological Plans, according to a study carried out by researchers from the Polytechnic University of Valencia (UPV) belonging to the Institute of Water and Environment Engineering (IIAMA).
How does climate change affect water resources?
When droughts reduce annual rainfall, water resources diminish after their use and consumption. In addition, to this we have to add that the increase in temperatures throughout the year increases the amount of dammed water that evaporates and is no longer useful. These aspects are not entirely well considered in many hydrological planning in Spain. In this context, the need to better understand the impact of climate change on our water systems and, therefore, it is necessary to study how climate change affects the different regions of Spain.
Research on the impacts of climate change on hydrological plans was conducted by Patricia Marcos and published in the scientific journal Ingeniería del Agua. This research highlights the limitations of the approach used in Spain in integrating all the effects of climate change into hydrological planning. Therefore, it is crucial to understand the effects on water management in the country.
The study concludes that hydrological management in Spain only takes into account the reduction in water input from precipitation and does not consider spatial variability within a single hydrological district. In other words, the impacts of climate change do not understand hydrological demarcations created by humans, but affect an entire extension equally. A hydrological plan for an autonomous community may consider some aspects and another plan contemplates others, but, nevertheless, climate change exerts the impacts equally.
Spanish water resources in danger
The study assessed the impact of climate change on the water resources of the Júcar River exploitation system, taking into account the latest climate change scenarios and comparing the results of three conceptual hydrological models. It also observed how water resources have been declining in the short and medium term and how they will continue to decline. Water resources are expected to they will decrease by 12%, but the research estimates a reduction of 20-21% in the short term and 29-36% in the medium term. This decline is worrying, as it could create serious difficulties in water management and highlight the importance of adapting to climate change.
This reduction in water resources is not contemplated in the drought plans of the autonomous communities. In fact, it has been found that in recent years a reduction similar to that implemented in the Plan has already been experienced. Furthermore, the analysis has determined a high degree of uncertainty regarding the potential percentage of resource reduction, derived from climate models and, to a lesser extent, hydrological models. In this sense, it is important to study how to properly manage resources to mitigate the impact of climate change on water availability.
The determination of the percentage of reduction in water resources is not only based on impacts of climate change or climate projections, but also on other elements, such as temperature, wind regime, increase in demand and population, agricultural needs, and other items. That is why the research proposes to carry out planning that is oriented not only to determine the reduction and percentage of water resources, but rather to be able to analyze the resilience (ability to adapt and bear loads) that stored water has in the face of stress situations.
In this way, we can identify which areas are most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, and we can propose adaptation measures. As you can see, climate change is threatening our water reserves. Water is a precious and necessary resource that we must safeguard. Implementing adaptation measures is key to mitigating adverse effects and thus ensuring long-term water resources.
