Climate change is a challenge we will all have to face. However, not everyone will have an easy time. In developing countries, the most affected, will have so many difficulties that the only solution to be able to stay alive will be to emigrate of what has been your home forever.
As the levels of carbon dioxide and other gases like methane rise more than they should, the temperature rises and the sun's rays leave many corners of the world with little water. In this situation, many millions of people will be forced to become climate refugees.
Two years ago, in 2014, the Internal Displacement Monitoring Center, from the Norwegian Refugee Council estimated 19,3 million people who left their homes due to natural disasters, such as hurricanes or droughts. People who went to other countries looking for a safer place, like the Old Continent.
Syria, during the years 2006 and 2011, experienced one of the worst droughts in recent history, which led to the death of much of the livestock and the displacement of two million people to the cities. This situation led to protests that were violently suppressed, so much so that Syrians are currently leaving their country.
For the year 2050, as we mentioned on the blogThe Middle East is going to be very, very hot during the summer. The temperature at night will be 30ºC, and during the day 46ºC, which could be 50ºC at the end of the century.
Some researchers warn that Water, the most precious commodity, will become a cause of war in the future. In Africa we are already seeing it: every year millions of people die from lack of drinking water. This highlights the importance of understanding the climate change and forced migration as a crucial factor.
A World Bank report has estimated that 216 million people could be forced to move within their country due to climate change by 2050.This study also warns that climate-related migration hotspots could emerge within the next decade. This climate-related migration could be reduced to just 44 million people if countries immediately begin reducing greenhouse gases, addressing development gaps, restoring their ecosystems, and helping people adapt to the environment.
The scale of internal migration triggered by climate impacts will be greatest in the poorest and most vulnerable regions, indicating that underlying weaknesses in the capacity of social, economic, and livelihood systems to address climate change could undermine development gains.
The region with the most internally displaced people in the climate would be sub-Saharan Africa., where up to 86 million people could be seen on the move; followed by East Asia and the Pacific, with 49 million; South Asia, with 40 million; North Africa, with 19 million; Latin America, with 17 million; and Eastern Europe and Central Asia, with five million.
The reason Africa's projection is so high relative to other regions of the world is that the continent is extremely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, especially in the already fragile drylands and along exposed coastlines. Agriculture, which in the sub-Saharan region consists almost entirely of rainfed crops, also accounts for a large percentage of employment and is critical to food security, as you'll see in our post on .
North Africa is expected to experience the highest proportion of climate-related internal migrants relative to the total population. This is largely due to severe water scarcity, as well as the impacts of rising sea levels in densely populated coastal areas and the Nile Delta.
Climate change also represents a global justice issue. The impacts of climate change are not distributed equitably, affecting some regions of the world more significantly than others. This reality highlights the inequality among nations in the global south, which suffer disproportionately from the consequences of historical emissions from developed countries. For the United Nations, injustices related to climate change highlight the growing gap between the richest and the poorest.
The World Bank's Vice President for Sustainable Development, Juergen Voegele, highlighted that the World Bank report “It is a stark reminder of the human cost of climate change.”, particularly among those with fewer resources and who typically contribute the least to this situation. The definition and implementation of global policies to prevent climate change must take into account that social injustice exacerbates the consequences of these changes, a topic we explored in our publication on climate change and forced migration.
This phenomenon of climate migration is no longer a problem of the future, but is happening today. According to recent data, in 2022, 32.6 million forced displacements due to natural disasters, a 41% increase compared to the average of the last ten years. This increase is a clear indicator that climate change is forcing people to leave their homes, even those not on the front lines of conflict.
The struggle for land ownership and access to natural resources has been a constant source of conflict around the world. Recently, these tensions have been exacerbated by climate change. Faced with the increasing loss of fertile land and limited access to vital resources, entire communities in all regions of the world are forced into exile. This is a clear threat multiplier, increasingly affecting less privileged communities, unable to adapt to changes in their environment—a phenomenon we have analyzed in Our article on the impact of climate change on travel.
Environmentally related natural disasters disproportionately affect rural populations in vulnerable countries. The five countries most affected by these climate-related events are Pakistan, the Philippines, China, India, and Nigeria, accounting for 98% of new displacements in 2022. These disadvantaged communities, unable to move or resettle, are destined to reside in areas directly exposed to climate-related ravages. Their suffering translates into devastating economic and social consequences, especially in crucial sectors such as agriculture, fisheries, and forestry, which are the very pillars of these nations' economies.
These migration dynamics are expected to continue to grow. It is essential to take action now to safeguard the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals over the next 10 years and ensure shared prosperity through mid-century and beyond. The World Bank makes key recommendations, including: reduce global emissions and make every effort to achieve the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement, integrate climate-related internal migration into green and resilient development planning, and prepare for each phase of displacement so that climate-related internal migration can be used as an adaptation strategy and generate positive outcomes.
Climate change is not only an environmental crisis, but also a social and economic one. As the planet warms and living conditions deteriorate, the millions of climate refugees emerging from this reality will need support and effective solutions. The challenge is significant, but collective action and cooperation are critical to addressing this crisis and protecting the world's vulnerable communities.
