La Weather forecast in Galicia It has become almost a necessity: between storms, persistent anticyclones, and abrupt temperature changes, more and more people are consulting different models to pinpoint what will happen in their area. When we talk about “Comparison of weather models for Galicia"We are not only referring to which map to look at, but to understanding what each model contributes, what forecasting timeframes it uses and how to interpret that data in the Galician context."
In the following lines we will calmly break down, How do the main numerical models compare? We'll explain the weather forecasting methods used in Galicia, the tools offered by organizations like AEMET and MeteoGalicia, and what the data tells us about a specific case of stable weather with mild temperatures and almost no rain. We'll use accessible language while maintaining the scientific rigor behind the methods. atmospheric modeling.
Which weather models are used for Galicia
When talking about Compare weather models in GaliciaA series of keywords always appear: ICON, GFS, GEM, ECMWF and the official AEMET forecasts. Each of them has its own characteristics, resolution and calculation philosophy, and they are complemented by regional models such as HARMONIE-AROME or systems such as CEPPM, very useful for the North Atlantic.
The ICONDeveloped by the German meteorological service (DWD), it works with a global grid but includes high resolution over Europe, which allows for quite precise forecasts for the Galician community, especially when analyzing maximum and minimum temperatures, cloud cover or short-term precipitation.
The GFSThe NCEP model from the United States is one of the most consulted worldwide. For Galicia, it is particularly interesting when looking at trends over several days, as it offers a broad time horizon, although with less local detail than regional models. Even so, It is key to anticipating pattern changes, such as the arrival of Atlantic storms or the establishment of powerful anticyclones.
For its part, GEMThe GEM model, developed by Environment Canada, often provides a very useful alternative perspective for comparing precipitation and wind scenarios. In some situations, as we will see, GEM is the only model that predicts light rain in northern Galicia when other models insist on a virtually dry scenario.
The ECMWF extensionThe forecast from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is considered one of the most reliable in the world, especially on multi-day timescales. In Galicia, it is widely used to assess weather scenarios. stable weather or cold air inlets, since it usually handles the position of anticyclones and large Atlantic storms quite well.
Finally, there are the official AEMET forecastsThese models combine information from various numerical models (including HARMONIE-AROME and others) with the experience of forecasters. For the average person, the AEMET forecast is usually the main reference, but comparing it with ICON, GFS, GEM, and ECMWF helps to identify nuances and levels of confidence in the prediction.
High-resolution models: HARMONIE-AROME and CEPPM
In addition to the major global models, in the comparison of weather models for Galicia It is essential to take into account high-resolution systems such as HARMONIE-AROME, which allow for a better capture of the complex Galician orography, and CEPPM, which is very useful for the North Atlantic and for longer-term forecasts.
The HARMONIE-AROME It offers the possibility of choosing between two geographical areas: one covering the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands, and another focused on the Canary Islands. For Galicia, the peninsular part is used, with very fine spatial detail that is ideal for evaluating phenomena such as maximum wind gustsLocalized showers, low cloud cover in the estuaries, or electrical discharges in storm situations.
HARMONIE-AROME allows you to consult various surface variables: temperature, pressure, wind, precipitation, cloud cover, lightning, and maximum gust. The time horizon of this model is 48 hours, making it a A very powerful tool for the short term, when the goal is to adjust the forecast almost to the scale of a region or even a valley.
The system CEPPM It also allows you to select two domains: North Atlantic and Global. In the North Atlantic area, you can visualize variables such as temperature, wind, pressure, geopotential, cloud cover, and precipitation, all of which is very useful for Galicia, which is directly affected by the storms and anticyclones that move through that oceanic region.
In the global domain of the CEPPM, the options focus on the pressure and geopotential, key variables for studying the large-scale atmospheric circulation and anticipate changes in weather patterns. This model has a forecast range of up to 10 days, making it perfect for getting an idea of ​​how the atmosphere might evolve in the medium term, although with less local accuracy than HARMONIE-AROME.
These models' maps allow users to zoom in and out on the area of ​​interest, so they can focus on Galicia and see in detail what to expect at each time slot. In addition, there is usually an option to generate temporary animationsThis is especially useful for getting an intuitive idea of ​​the movement of fronts, cloud bands, or areas of precipitation.
Access to data and models in MeteoGalicia
In the case of Galicia, one of the great advantages is being able to access the historical climate data and prediction models in real time through the MeteoGalicia portal. This regional service has become an absolute benchmark, to the point of being the most visited page of the Xunta (Galician Government).
According to data provided by the regional government, the MeteoGalicia website handles approximately 20.000 daily visitswith peaks that can reach 60.000 accesses on days with adverse weather or significant meteorological events. This was explained by Paula UrÃa, Director General of Renewable Energies and Climate Change, who emphasized the importance of the service for the public.
The redesign of the MeteoGalicia website aims to allow anyone to consult the more than 120 million data points per year which have been collected since 2020 through their extensive network of stationsThis data will be displayed using interactive graphs, so that the user can see the current conditions, the evolution over a specific period, as well as the historical maximums, minimums and average values in each municipality.
Thanks to these tools, residents can check whether rainfall, wind, temperatures, or other weather phenomena are within normal climatic ranges or, conversely, are at unusual levels. Juan Taboada, coordinator of MeteoGalicia, cited the example of Santiago, where temperatures didn't reach three degrees Celsius in the morning, when the usual temperature for that month is well over five degrees.
In addition, in another section of the page, the following are displayed in real time via a viewer: models used by meteorologists to prepare their forecasts. These graphic products are maps that represent the evolution of different variables (temperature, pressure, wind, precipitation, cloud cover…) with an approximate range of 72 hours, offering a very visual view of how weather systems will move over Galicia.
The portal's new features will also be progressively incorporated into the MeteoGalicia mobile appso that the information is conveniently and quickly available on phones. As Paula UrÃa herself confirmed, the intention is to improve transparency and provide useful data to the public, both for daily life and for planning outdoor activities or the risks prevention.
This opening of data and model viewers is part of a broader regulatory context, with the development of a new Climate Law Galicia, which will regulate, among other things, the functions of MeteoGalicia. An important part of this law will be to provide greater legal certainty to the use of meteorological data to establish weather alerts and action protocols in the face of adverse weather events.
Stable weather conditions: temperatures in major cities
To illustrate how the different weather models in GaliciaIt is very useful to look at a specific scenario of stable and dry weather, dominated by an anticyclone. In this case, the ICON, GFS, GEM, ECMWF models and the AEMET forecasts all agree on predicting a day without significant rainfall and with relatively mild temperatures, with a clear contrast between the coast and the interior.
Taken together, the models indicate Maximum temperatures between 14 and 23 degrees and minimum temperatures ranging approximately between 2 and 11 degrees, depending on the location. This range is due to the influence of the sea in coastal cities, which moderates both maximum and minimum temperatures, and to the more pronounced nighttime cooling in inland and valley areas.
In Vigo, for example, the maximum temperatures range from 18,1 °C, as predicted by ICON, to 21,2 °C, according to the GFS model, while AEMET places the value at 20 °C. As for the minimum temperatures, the values ​​range from 7,0 °C, as shared by ICON and AEMET, to 9,4 °C, estimated by GEM. If the average of all the models is taken, the maximum temperature in Vigo would be around... 19,6 ° C and the minimum would be around 7,8 °C.
In A Coruña, another very representative coastal location, the expected highs range from 14,2 °C (ICON) to 18,2 °C (ECMWF), with an official forecast from AEMET of 17 °C. The lows, meanwhile, range from 7,6 °C (ECMWF) to 10,3 °C (ICON). The average of all models places the high in A Coruña at around 16,5 ° C and the minimum around 9,0 °C.
Looking inland, Santiago de Compostela has a range of maximum temperatures between 18,3 °C (ICON) and 21,0 °C (GFS and AEMET forecasts). The expected minimum temperatures range from 5,3 °C (GFS) to 7,7 °C (GEM), while AEMET forecasts 7 °C. The average of all the results places the maximum in Santiago around 19,7 °C and the minimum close to... 6,5 ° C.
In Pontevedra, with its location somewhere between the coast and the estuary, maximum temperatures range from 19,2 °C (GEM) to 21,6 °C (GFS), with AEMET forecasting 21 °C. Minimum temperatures drop to 4,2 °C according to ICON, while GEM predicts 8,5 °C; AEMET's forecast is somewhere in between, at 7 °C. The average of the models places the maximum in Pontevedra at 20,2 °C and the minimum around [missing information]. 7,0 ° C.
Ourense clearly emerges as the warmest city in this anticyclonic scenario. Models place maximum temperatures between 19,7 °C (ICON) and 23,0 °C, a value that coincides with the AEMET forecast. Minimum temperatures range from 2,4 °C (ICON) to 7,3 °C (GEM), while AEMET forecasts 5 °C. The average of the different models places the maximum temperature in Ourense at approximately 21,4 °C and the minimum at around 4,9 ° C, accurately reflecting the strong daily temperature contrast typical of the interior.
In Lugo, also inland but influenced by altitude and its relative proximity to the Cantabrian Sea, the forecast highs range from 17,7 °C (ICON model) to 20,0 °C (AEMET model). Lows fluctuate between 3,6 °C (values ​​consistent between GFS and ECMWF) and 5,8 °C (GEM), while AEMET indicates 4 °C. On average, the high in Lugo would reach around 18,7 °C, with a low close to... 4,5 ° C.
Finally, in Ferrol, the maximum temperatures range from 16,6 °C, as predicted by GEM, to 19,0 °C, as forecast by AEMET. The minimum temperatures are expected to range from 7,5 °C according to GFS to 11,3 °C according to GEM, with AEMET offering an intermediate value of 9 °C. The average of the models places the maximum around 17,4 °C and the minimum around [missing value]. 9,0 ° C, consistent with the moderating influence of the sea.
Weather extremes and the role of AEMET
In this type of comparison, it is also interesting to look at the extreme values collected or predicted, both to better understand the usual range of weather in Galicia and to assess the role of AEMET and numerical models in less calm situations than the one described above.
Among the recent extremes linked to the AEMET network, maximum temperatures close to 23,9 ° C Minimum temperatures have dropped to around -5,4 °C, illustrating the significant temperature contrast that can occur depending on the prevailing air mass and the time of year. During periods of strong winds, gusts of up to 118 km/h have been recorded, while in intense downpours, rainfall has reached localized amounts of around 20 mm in relatively short periods.
These extremes demonstrate the need to have quality numerical models, capable of anticipating both the rise in temperatures during warm air episodes and the outbreaks of cold air that trigger the risk of frost, as well as the wind and rain storms that recurrently affect Galicia, especially in autumn and winter.
AEMET uses a combination of global models (such as ECMWF or GFS) and regional models (such as HARMONIE-AROME) to produce its forecasts, which are then adjusted by forecasters based on their experience and analysis of the atmospheric situation. Thanks to this approach, the official predictions They achieve a good balance between objective information from the models and expert interpretation of the Galician meteorological reality.
When comparing the outputs from ICON, GFS, GEM, and ECMWF with what AEMET ultimately publishes for Galicia, small differences are observed in temperatures, cloud cover, or probability of precipitation, but in stable weather situations there is usually a high degree of consensus, as seen in the episode described above with Mostly clear skies and no rain.
Precipitation expected under an anticyclonic scenario
On the day analyzed, the atmospheric situation over Galicia is dominated by a robust anticycloneThis translates into stable weather and a lack of active fronts. Most models agree that no significant rainfall is expected, with differences limited to slight variations in light rain in northern areas.
In Vigo, for example, all the models consulted predict 0 mm of rainreflecting a completely dry day. The same is true in Santiago de Compostela, Pontevedra, and Ourense, where no precipitation signal appears in ICON, GFS, GEM, or ECMWF, reinforcing the idea of ​​general stability.
In A Coruña, the only model that stands out slightly is GEM, which suggests rainfall of around 1,2 mm, while the rest maintain zero or practically negligible values, around 0,1 mm in the case of ECMWF. This type of minimal differences They usually correspond to residual cloudiness or very weak small showers in the coastal strip.
In Lugo, GEM also forecasts a symbolic amount of rain, around 0,2 mm, while the other models maintain the reading at 0 mm. A similar situation is observed in Ferrol, where GEM predicts around 0,9 mm of precipitation, while the other models remain at 0 mm or, at most, 0,1 mm.
Overall, the interpretation that can be made is that significant probability of rain It is practically zero throughout Galicia for this situation, and only a few models, in a very isolated way, suggest the possibility of a residual drizzle in the north or northwest, probably associated with cloud cover with hardly any vertical development.
Stability, anticyclone and wind chill
The fact that the models are not predicting rain and that temperatures will remain in moderate ranges confirms that this is a day dominated by stable and dry weatherIn practice, this translates into mostly clear skies, abundant sunshine during the day, and cool nights, especially inland where radiative cooling is more pronounced.
In coastal cities like Vigo, A Coruña, Pontevedra, and Ferrol, the presence of the sea tends to moderate the minimum temperatures, so the feeling of cold in the early morning is less pronounced than in Lugo or Ourense. However, during the day, maximum temperatures are usually somewhat lower on the coast, while inland areas reach higher values ​​thanks to a... lesser maritime influence.
These types of anticyclonic situations are also a good testing ground for numerical models: with no active fronts or strong convection, the differences in rainfall prediction almost disappear and attention is focused on fine-tune the temperatures, low cloud cover or possible morning fog, especially in inland valleys.
From a daily planning perspective, such a setting is ideal for outdoor activities, hiking, farm work, or fishing, provided one bears in mind that the early morning hours can be cold, especially in areas where minimum temperatures drop below 5°C. Monitoring the maximum wind gust, available in models such as HARMONIE-AROME, also helps to assess thermal comfort and the possible feeling of cold due to the wind.
Meteorology enthusiasts and professionals can take advantage of these calm days to compare, in detail, how each model adjusts the distribution of temperatures and cloud cover on a local scale, and what biases seem to be repeated in certain areas of Galicia according to the model consulted.
Practical use of models and data: citizenship and transparency
Beyond scientific curiosity or professional interest, access to details of the weather models Large historical databases already have a direct impact on people's daily lives. In Galicia, this access is being promoted by both MeteoGalicia and AEMET, with the aim of making the information more understandable and transparent.
The redesign of the MeteoGalicia website, with its interactive graphics and 72-hour model viewers, represents a significant leap forward, enabling farmers, ranchers, fishermen, energy companies, civil protection services, and any citizen to assess whether what is happening is normal or exceptional in climatic terms. This facilitates everything from daily decision-making to justifying preventative measures against adverse events.
In parallel, the development of the new Galician Climate Law aims to strengthen the role of MeteoGalicia and meteorological data as the basis for official alerts, providing greater legal security to the use of that information in areas such as emergency management, land management or energy planning.
At the same time, both AEMET and other professional meteorological portals emphasize the importance of policies on cookies and privacy on their websites. Many of these platforms use their own and third-party technical cookies to improve the user experience, remember preferences, and understand which sections are most useful to users, always clarifying that they are not used to collect sensitive personal data without express consent.
Having access to models like HARMONIE-AROME and CEPPM, historical data from over 120 million annual records, and verified official predictions allows the conversation about the weather to move beyond being just an informal topic and become a planning tool and adaptation to an increasingly variable climate.
In short, the combination of global models (ICON, GFS, GEM, ECMWF), high-resolution systems (HARMONIE-AROME, CEPPM), AEMET forecasts, and the MeteoGalicia platform offers a very solid picture for understanding what will happen with the atmosphere in Galicia, from the local scale to the Atlantic context. In stable situations like the one described, all agree on predicting a dry day, with highs between 14 and 23 degrees Celsius and lows between 2 and 11 degrees Celsius, while in severe weather events they are able to anticipate extremes such as gusts of 118 km/h and intense rainfall close to 20 mm, thus consolidating a modern, detailed, and increasingly accessible meteorological information system for all of Galician society.
