The main objective of the Paris Agreement is to avoid increasing global average temperatures by 1,5 degrees above pre-industrial levels. Even if this target were achieved and stabilized at this level, climate change is causing the frequency and intensity of extreme El Niño events to increase, which will continue for a century. To better understand this phenomenon, you can find more information at the El Niño phenomenon.
Even if the objectives of the Paris Agreement were achieved, this would not serve to stabilize El Niño. These studies have been conducted by research centers in Australia and China. Do you want to know more about the effect of El Niño?
Increase in the El Niño phenomenon
The continuing warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific region caused by global warming and greenhouse gas emissions, make the El Niño phenomenon increase in frequency and intensity. Previously, El Niño cycles occurred every 7 years, as it is a natural meteorological event, alternating with the La Niña phenomenon. There is evidence that the El Niño phenomenon has been occurring this way for a very long time. However, climate change is causing it to occur at a faster rate and with greater intensity. To learn more about the reasons behind this phenomenon, you can read about the reason for the appearance of the El Niño phenomenon.
A more frequent and more intense El Niño phenomenon leads to worse consequences for those countries that suffer from it, such as Peru. Study leader Guojian Wang said the current risk of extreme El Niño cases is 5 per century but that in 2050, when warming is forecast to have reached 1,5 degrees, the frequency will double to 10 cases. This increase in frequency poses serious climatic challenges that are interrelated with the climate change and its consequences.
To know the effect and frequency of the El Niño phenomenon in the future, five climate models have been used that are based on a global scenario in which greenhouse gas emissions are minimal. That is, they are the global emissions that the IPCC estimates that there will be if the requirements of the Paris Agreement are met. Extreme cases of El Niño occur when the center of rainfall in the Pacific moves towards South America, which causes alterations in the climate, which are more accentuated the further east the center moves.
Therefore, the effects of climate change are already unstoppable. All we can do is appease them as much as we can.
