The world is once again pinning its hopes on a new climate summit, this time in Baku, Azerbaijan, where COP29 has begun. This meeting, which runs until November 22, promises to be key to laying the foundations for a global response to climate change. However, a feeling of uncertainty permeates the first discussions, especially due to the lack of concrete commitments and the absence of important figures such as the President of the United States, Joe Biden, and other important leaders such as Xi Jinping, which has generated criticism and doubts about the effectiveness of the meeting.
Climate finance is undoubtedly the central theme of this summit. The nations most affected by climate change, especially developing countries, hope to obtain a firm commitment from wealthier nations to help them combat and adapt to the devastating effects they are already beginning to see in their territories.
Financing, a necessary challenge
In Baku, the aim is to define the amount of money that will be mobilized from 2025 onwards to finance action against climate change. The current target for financing measures to address the climate crisis , set in 2009, was to mobilize $100.000 billion annually , a figure that, although ambitious at the time, was not reached until 2022. A significant portion of these funds has been provided in the form of loans, increasing the debt of many developing countries.
Current demands are much higher. It is estimated that between $1 trillion and $2,4 trillion annually will be needed to address the climate crisis by 2030. Developing countries, particularly the most vulnerable, insist that the funds must come from the countries that have historically contributed the most to greenhouse gas emissions.
The UN's Executive Secretary for Climate Change, Simon Stiell, has been clear in stating that climate finance "is not an act of charity, it is a global necessity ." The idea that wealthier nations should help the most vulnerable is not only an act of climate justice, but also an investment in the planet's stability. If we do not act quickly, extreme weather events will intensify, affecting everyone, regardless of wealth or geographic location.
A summit marked by geopolitics
The selection of Azerbaijan as host of COP29 has generated controversy , primarily because the country is a "petrostate," with its economy based on oil and gas, which puts it at odds with efforts to transition to clean energy. More than 90% of Azerbaijan's exports come from fossil fuels, and its GDP depends on these resources for 64% of its GDP, making it one of the world's leading gas exporters.
COP29 President Mukhtar Babayev, a former executive at state oil company Socar, has also come under fire. The choice of Babayev and Azerbaijan to lead the summit has raised suspicions about the possible influence of oil and gas interests in the climate negotiations.
The danger of an unprecedented year
The latest report released by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has added a note of urgency to the discussions, and most worryingly, this year could be the first in which the average global temperature exceeds the critical threshold of 1,5 degrees Celsius, the threshold sought to be avoided under the Paris Agreement.
This data has served as a “red alert” for world leaders and non-governmental organizations present in Baku. The effects of global warming have already been felt with devastating natural disasters such as the recent torrential rains in Valencia and other parts of the world. Simon Stiell reminded those present that “no one is immune to this crisis ,” and that extreme weather events will continue to affect both rich and poor countries if decisive action is not taken.
An Uncertain Future
Despite the urgency and gravity of the situation, COP29 has not been without tensions and disagreements . Geopolitical differences remain a factor at the negotiating table. Internationally, there is concern about the role that Donald Trump, recently elected president of the United States, may play, given his well-known skepticism regarding climate change. In his previous term, he withdrew the United States from the Paris Agreement, leaving a significant gap in global commitments to reduce emissions.
The European Union has made it clear that this issue is expected to be central to the discussions and has called on the United States not to back down in its fight against climate change. Europe has also raised the need for emerging economies like China to become more actively involved in climate finance, as they have thus far been beneficiaries of these funds despite being major global emitters.
These disagreements, coupled with criticism of Azerbaijan as host, mean that hopes are pinned on reaching a solid compromise in the coming days. It remains to be seen whether world leaders will rise to the occasion and be able to reach agreements that will truly have a significant impact on the fight against climate change.
