The scientists put the limit of the increase of the global average temperatures in 2 ° C. Why that temperature? Various studies show that from this warming of global temperatures, changes in ecosystems and global atmospheric circulation, the changes produced would be irreversible and unpredictable over time.
Therefore, keeping global warming below 1,5°C is one of the goals set by the Paris Agreement, which 195 countries agreed to consider as the limit by the end of the century. However, 65% of the mass of Asia's high-mountain glaciers could be lost if greenhouse gas emissions continue at this rate. Are Asia's glaciers melting?
Asian Glacier Study
A study, led by the University of Utrecht (the Netherlands), suggests that up to 65% of the mass of high mountain glaciers in Asia could be lost under a scenario of continuous high rates of greenhouse gas production.
If emissions continue at the accelerated and exacerbated rate they are today, the Asian continent will face massive ice loss that will destabilize natural ecosystems and have serious supply consequences for those areas that depend on them. Drinking water, farmland, and hydroelectric dams would all be threatened by the decrease in the mass of these glaciers.
In regions where meltwater from glaciers is essential for the flow of rivers and the life of the flora and fauna associated with them. The exploitation of rivers to irrigate crops and rice fields that are supplied with water from glaciers may be diminished by their disappearance.
With rising temperatures due to greenhouse gas emissions in China, where 60% of the energy mix is ​​based on coal burning , minimum snowfall is increasing and glaciers are losing mass and volume. This is similar to what is observed in other places, such as the Himalayan glaciers.
The reduction in river flow can lead to problems related to food and energy production, which can have all sorts of cascading negative consequences. Furthermore, many studies have already indicated that the difference between climate change and global warming is fundamental to understanding these phenomena.
Impact and consequence assessment
To assess the impacts of glacial melt on water supplies, agriculture, and hydroelectric dams, the experts who worked on this study, published in the journal Nature, used multiple sources of current climate precipitation and temperature data. They also relied on satellite data, climate model projections for precipitation and temperature changes up to 2100 , and the results of their own fieldwork conducted in Nepal using unmanned aerial vehicles.
The conclusions of this study, according to the predicted climate scenario, even for an ideal scenario in which the Paris Agreement is met and the average temperatures of the planet do not rise above 1,5°C, indicate that around 35% of the mass of the glaciers will be lost by the year 2100.
With projected temperature increases of around 3,5°C, 4°C, and 6°C, massive losses of approximately 49%, 51%, and 65%, respectively, would occur. This type of loss has also been analyzed in cities that could disappear due to global warming , highlighting the magnitude of the problem facing Asia's glaciers.
Effects of glacier loss
It is quite difficult to determine the effects that ice loss will have on the planet's climate. What is certain, however, is that the repercussions will be negative . To further understand the consequences of glacial retreat, an extensive impact study is required that explains the physical and social processes using data from many sources, including the results of this study.
The closer one is to glacial zones, the more important meltwater becomes for various human activities. Although in some areas the contribution of glacial meltwater to rivers is greater than in others, the drier western part of the region, such as the Indus Basin, relies more heavily on the relatively constant flow of glacial meltwater. This underscores the urgency of the situation regarding the effects of climate change on diverse populations.
