Although a large part of the world's population is still unaware of climate change and its negative effects, and others, like President Donald Trump, believe that curbing global warming is the greatest challenge facing the human species in the 21st century.
To try to avert this catastrophe, which would unleash total instability across the planet, the Paris Agreement came into force. Its objective is paramount and essential for the world: to limit the increase in the Earth's average temperature to 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit this increase to 1,5°C and stabilize it. New research indicates that these goals are becoming increasingly difficult to achieve. What can we do?
Curbing rising temperatures is increasingly difficult
A statistical study conducted at various American universities (note the irony, since their president doesn't believe in climate change) reveals that the probability of the planet reaching a 2°C increase and remaining at that level is only 5%. We're already shocked when we see that the probability of achieving stability at 1,5°C is only 1%.
This research has been published in the journal Nature Climate Change. Among the study's findings is that the Earth's temperature is most likely to rise between 2°C and 4,9°C over the next century. Overall, the goals set in the Paris Agreement are ambitious and realistic. However, even in the best-case scenario where they are fully met, this would not be enough to keep global warming below 1,5°C.
To understand how temperatures would increase based on greenhouse gas emissions by the year 2100, three variables were taken into account: the total world population, the gross domestic product per capita, and the amount of carbon emissions produced by each economic activity.
Once the three variables were entered into models that predict temperatures based on global emissions, it was concluded that the planet's average temperature will have risen by 3,2°C by the end of the century. They warn that the speed at which carbon dioxide emissions are reduced by each economic activity will be crucial to curbing future heat.
Another conclusion of the study is that if average global temperatures rise above 1,5°C, the severe environmental disasters that many countries would suffer will be far more serious than those currently being experienced. Furthermore, it is important to mention that the breathtaking beauty of Antarctica is threatened by these changes.
The situation is even more alarming considering that global warming could negatively impact forest soils, which are fundamental to climate balance. Furthermore, understanding the differences between climate change and global warming is essential for a better understanding of the issue.
In this context, another aspect to consider is how clean air could, paradoxically, worsen the consequences of global warming, demonstrating the complexity of the current situation. If we want to combat rising global temperatures , we must consider all the variables involved.
Finally, it is important to recognize that rising temperatures could also lead to more dangerous and longer-lasting wildfires , contributing to a vicious cycle of environmental damage.
