The Atlantic Current, a massive ocean conveyor belt that carries warm water from the tropics to the North Atlantic, is slowing down and on the verge of collapse, which will change temperatures in Europe. Scientists have been warning about this for years. Recent research has not only confirmed the loss of energy in this current but also predicts a sudden halt in the not-too-distant future. The shutdown will have repercussions across Europe, leading to prolonged drought and plunging much of the continent into a perpetually cold winter. Scientists are speaking of the collapse of the Gulf Stream as having a negative global environmental impact.
Therefore, we are going to dedicate this article to tell you everything you need to know about the collapse of the Gulf Stream.
Atlantic Current
An atmospheric physicist from the Complutense University of Madrid said: “Once this happens, the movement of warm tropical waters toward the North Atlantic region will cease, turning into cooler waters and impacting the region’s climate.” According to the study, published in the journal Nature, the behavior of this “conveyor belt” of water—known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)—has given sufficient indications that it is on the verge of “imminent collapse.”
The thermohaline circulation (THC) is one of the most important components of global ocean circulation. Essentially, it is a key determinant of global climate due to its significant role in the net global heat flow. The AMOC, located within this conveyor belt, regulates the temperature in the South Atlantic. "Thanks to it, Madrid has a warmer climate than New York, even though they are at a similar latitude," notes the atmospheric physicist.
Its operation is characterized by a current of warm, salty water that flows through the upper Atlantic Ocean, while another current carries cooler, deeper waters southward, which then become part of the thermohaline circulation. To better understand this phenomenon, you can consult information about ocean currents.
However, the engine that drives this Atlantic current has lost power over the past decade, and climate change itself is believed to be the cause. “It’s not clear, but many theories point to the melting of Greenland as the main reason for this slowdown,” said González, because it is the ice in the colder parts of Europe that allows the Atlantic currents to function.
This is in line with the increased density of surface waters caused by deepening climate change, bringing the system one step closer to total collapse.
Study on the collapse of the Gulf Stream
The study did not specify when the phenomenon might occur, but it does not rule out the possibility of it happening in the coming decades, possibly even before the end of the century. "This would have catastrophic effects on Europe and the world as a whole," since it would suddenly "completely alter the climate," the researchers concluded.
In fact, this particular situation is considered a "climate tipping point," meaning that once it occurs, the region's climate will never be the same. If you'd like to learn more about how the climate in Europe will be affected, you can check out the article on how the Gulf Stream will mitigate global warming in Europe.
Consequences of the collapse of the Gulf Stream
The list compiled by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) contains nine climate tipping points that are either severely affected or at serious risk of disappearing. These nine elements are Arctic sea ice, the Greenland ice sheet, boreal forest, permafrost, the Atlantic current system, the Amazon rainforest, warm-water corals, and the Southern Ocean ice sheets in West Antarctica and East Asia. All of these tipping points are interconnected, so what affects one affects another.
“This situation could be worse than global warming, as its effects are felt gradually, but nevertheless, this is a fundamental change that will still have unintended consequences,” he insists. Potential impacts include reduced rainfall, denser snow cover in more parts of Europe, agricultural problems, and a greater likelihood of events such as stronger cyclones.
What happens, as González Alemán warns, is that although these effects seem to go against climate change and to a certain extent balance it, this is probably not the case.
“In some places it can balance the two phenomena, in others it can reduce the effects of climate change, and in others it can amplify the effects of climate change,” the researchers insist, emphasizing that the only consequence of such a collapse is that the future is “much more complicated .” “We don’t know all the effects it could have, and it could have unpredictable events,” they said.
Direct effect on the Atlantic
Research shows that we are approaching a critical threshold beyond which the circulatory system can collapse. This work shows that several factors increase the direct effect of warming of the Atlantic on its circulation.
These include freshwater inflows from melting Greenland's ice sheets, melting sea ice, increased precipitation, and river runoff . Freshwater reduces the tendency of North Atlantic water to sink deeper from the surface, one of the drivers of turbulence.
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a major ocean current that regulates Earth's climate. It transports warm water from the surface at high latitudes, heats the air, sinks, and returns to the equator. For example, it is responsible for Spain's much milder climate compared to the rest of the planet at the same latitude. For more details about this phenomenon, you can read about the Gulf Stream.
If the Arctic warms, Europe will cool because when a lot of cold and less salty water gets into the Atlantic, it cuts off the flow of warm water from Central America to Europe, which will cause global temperatures to drop in Western Europe, so the temperature will move to a level similar to that recorded in North America at the same latitude.
