Warm autumn in Spain: A comprehensive analysis of the 2023 projections

This year 2016 has brought us a summer that has been the third hottest in 51 years. But now we will also have, in all probability, a warmer fall than normal, according to Ana Casals, the spokeswoman for the State Meteorological Agency, at a press conference.

We tell you what autumn 2016 will be like.

What will autumn be like in Spain this year?

According to the AEMET, autumn, which begins today at 16.21:1981 p.m., could be warmer than it should be, and drier, taking 2010-XNUMX as a reference period. In fact, if we talk about temperatures, there is a 50% chance that they are taller than they should be… across the country! Something incredible.

Regarding rainfall, there is a 45% chance that it doesn't rain as much as is expected, again, across the country.

Is climate change responsible for "veroño"?

According to the delegate of the AEMET in Murcia, Juan Esteban Palenzuela, the heat wave that we have had this September has been one more effect of climate change. Furthermore, he added that 'With nearly 80 years of meteorological data, it seems to be intuited that apart from the variety inherent in the climate there is something else'. That is to say, it is likely that little by little we could have a warmer and drier climate.

The summer tends to extend, so that in recent years the term has begun to be used »summer», Since it is more and more frequent that in autumn temperatures more typical of the end of summer are registered. Will we end up celebrating Christmas with a soda with ice? It is difficult to know, but what is certain is that the temperatures are getting higher and higher.

So, if you were waiting for the heat to finally end and the cool to return, perhaps we will have to wait a little longer.

Autumn is the season that falls between the end of summer and the beginning of winter, and is a period characterized by changes in nature, the weather, and, of course, human behavior. In Spain, the months corresponding to this season are September, October, and November, and it is often associated with the onset of rain and a gradual drop in temperatures.

In this section, we'll delve into what we can expect this fall, especially in terms of anticipated temperatures and precipitation.

Temperatures and precipitation in autumn 2023

This fall, the AEMET (Meteorological Agency) has predicted that temperatures will be significantly higher than in previous years. The following table summarizes the temperature forecasts for each month:

• SeptemberTemperatures above 25°C are expected in many regions, with highs approaching 30°C in areas of the south and east of the Iberian Peninsula.
• OctoberTemperatures will remain warm, especially in the south, where higher than usual lows are expected.
• NovemberAlthough this is the month in which frost traditionally begins in some areas, this year may not be an exception, but temperature records could remain above historical averages.

Precipitation, on the other hand, appears to be scarcer compared to what has been seen in previous years. AEMET estimates that during the fall of 2023 there will be a 21% more rain than normal in much of northern Spain, in contrast to areas in the southeast, where much drier conditions are expected.

Climate Change Highlights

The influence of climate change on Spain's weather conditions has become more evident in recent years. A recent study found that average temperatures have increased significantly, and many experts consider this trend alarming. Some key points include:

• The average temperature in Spain has increased by approximately 1,5°C since 1961.
• Seven of the ten warmest autumns on record have occurred in the 21st century.
• Studies indicate that heat waves and extreme temperatures are becoming more common, which can have serious consequences for the environment and public health.

Climate change also affects the precipitation patterns, which have become more erratic. This leads to an increase in the frequency of droughts in some regions and floods in others. The result is a more unstable and potentially destructive climate.

The 'Indian summer' phenomenon

One of the terms used to describe the phenomenon of a warm autumn is "veroño," which refers to the period of warmth experienced in September and October, months when temperatures typically drop. This peculiarity is due to a combination of several factors:

• The persistence of weather patterns that allow warm air to remain on the peninsula.
• The warming of the Mediterranean Sea waters, which can contribute to a warmer, drier climate.
• The influence of anticyclones that affect the weather on the European continent.

Indian summer can have various implications for agriculture, the environment, and human health. Prolonged high temperatures can negatively affect agricultural production, as many crops require a cold cycle to ripen. mature properlyFurthermore, continued exposure to high temperatures can have adverse effects on public health, increasing the risk of respiratory and cardiovascular problems.

Autumn and its impact on fauna and flora

The change in weather patterns also affects the country's flora and fauna. The delayed arrival of warmer temperatures can cause some plant species to bloom early or animals to change their migratory behavior. Some examples include:

• The flowering of certain plants that normally bloom in spring, which can lead to droughts in the natural cycle and affect food production.
• Bird migration patterns may be altered, as they may arrive at their destinations at less favorable times for foraging.
• The reproductive cycles of many animals may be disrupted, as populations may not have evolved to adapt to these sudden temperature changes.

The implications of these changes for flora and fauna are worrying, as biodiversity and entire ecosystems must adapt rapidly to a world that is changing faster than many species can cope.

Balancing temperatures and rainfall in Spain

The information about rainfall levels predicts a dry autumn in many areas, particularly in the southeast of the peninsula. This combination of high temperatures and poor rainfall can further exacerbate the impacts of climate change. The necessity for effective water management becomes even more critical as reservoirs and water sources may face continued depletion.

Some critical points about water management in Spain include:

• The need to promote sustainable water management practices to reduce waste.
• Investing in technology and infrastructure to improve water conservation.
• Raising public awareness about the importance of water conservation, especially during periods of drought.

Efforts to adapt to these climatic changes must also consider the effects of climate change at the local and national levels, including how to reduce carbon emissions and promote renewable energy sources.

Future perspectives

The AEMET (Meteorological Agency) has indicated that, if current trends continue, we could expect increasingly warmer and drier autumns in the future. This could significantly change the way people live and work in Spain, leading to the need to adapt infrastructure and public policies to help manage these changes effectively. In this regard, it is crucial to continue researching and monitoring meteorological conditions in order to adequately anticipate and respond to these challenges.

These extreme weather events are expected to become increasingly frequent. Preparing the population and the most affected sectors to face and adapt to these challenges must be a shared priority.

As we have seen throughout this article, Spain's climate is changing, and we must be prepared to face the consequences. Adaptation and mitigation in all areas, from agriculture to public health, are vital to ensuring a sustainable future.

Constant monitoring of climate trends and developing strategies to address climate change are essential for the survival of species that depend on the balance of the ecosystem. Now is the time to act, not only for ourselves, but for the generations to come.