Over the years, the history of our planet has undergone great changes. Some have been gentle and moderate, and others have been very abrupt and aggressive. Some of these have had to do with the extinction of many speciesBut why have there been times when many species have become extinct en masse? Daniel Rothman, professor of geophysics in the Department of Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences at MIT, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, has used mathematics to answer this question.
According to the predictions, In 2100 the oceans will store a total of 310 gigatons of carbon dioxideA gigaton is the same as 1.000.000.000.000 kilograms (one trillion). That's enough to trigger the probability of a catastrophe if nothing is done to stop it. This is the conclusion Rothman reached, taking into account the carbon disturbances of the past 542 million years.
Using math to predict the future
En analyzes of the last 542 million years, can be observed 5 great mass extinctions occurred. One thing they all have in common was large carbon disturbances. They affected both the oceans and the atmosphere. In addition, as indicated, these disturbances have lasted millions of years, causing the extinction of many species. In the case of marine species, up to 75% of them.
The MIT geophysics professor presented a mathematical formula to the journal Science Advances that helped identify catastrophe thresholds. If these thresholds are exceeded, the chances of a mass extinction are very great.
A reflection in our days
To reach these conclusions, 31 isotopic events from the last 542 million years were studied. The critical rate of carbon cycle disturbance and its magnitude were linked to the size of the timescale to which the alkalinity of the ocean and climate change adjust. This is the limit to prevent acidification of these two.
When one of these two thresholds is exceeded, it was observed that large extinctions of species follow.. For changes in the carbon cycle that occur over long periods of time, extinctions occur if these alterations occur at a rate faster than the environment's own capacity to adapt. This reflects what is happening in our time, where carbon dioxide levels are skyrocketing, and the climate is changing at an excessively rapid pace, speaking in time scales. This is critical, given that many species are currently in danger due to climate change. global warming.
In contrast, for shocks that occur on shorter time scales, the rate of carbon cycle changes does not matter. At this point, what is relevant is the size or magnitude of the alteration, which determines the probability.
Arrived at 2100
Rothman said that it would take about 10.000 years for this phenomenon to fully develop. But that it is very possible that once the situation arrives, the planet enters unknown territory. That is really a problem. "I do not want to say that the phenomenon occurs the next day," he said in a statement. «I am saying that, if it is not controlled, the carbon cycle would move into a realm that would no longer be stable and would behave in ways that would be difficult to predict. In the geological past, this type of behavior is associated with the ".
The researcher was previously working with the end-Permian extinctionThe most severe era in Earth's history, with more than 95% of species extinct, saw a massive pulse of carbon strongly involved. Since then, many conversations with friends and people around him have stimulated him to pursue this research. From then on, as he says, "I sat down one summer day and tried to think about how one could study this systematically." What happened millions of years ago, occupying vast timescales, becomes something that today seems to take only a few centuries.
Our planet is in balance. Whether it's temperature, climate, pollution, carbon levels, etc. A balance that seems to be changing faster than ever before. Can it be stopped? And if not, how could we explain why we haven't stopped it yet and can see it coming?
