To be able to make predictions in the meteorology and know the weather that is going to do, the weather models. These models are mainly based on a computer program that is capable of processing the corresponding meteorological information or a specific moment. This moment is always tried to be in the near future and is established for certain parts of the planet and certain attitudes. We cannot guarantee that weather models can predict with complete certainty what the weather will be like in the next few days. In fact, adequate accuracy is not guaranteed after 4 days of prediction.
In this article we are going to tell you everything you need to know about weather models and how it works.
Key features
Meteorological models must analyze a multitude of meteorological variables. The variables are those that influence the lower layer of the atmosphere that we know as the troposphere. It is here that large-scale weather events and climate events take place. The variables to be studied are the following: temperature, humidity, cloudiness, wind, solar radiation, atmospheric pressure, among others. All of these variables are constantly changing due to activities such as the Earth's rotation and translation around the sun.
Once they've analyzed the variables, they work with mathematical equations to try to predict, more accurately than others, how the atmosphere will behave in the following hours, days, weeks, and even months and years. These meteorological models that attempt to estimate the values of the variables over months and years are called climate models. This is due to the difference that exists primarily between meteorology and climatology. Meteorology is the science that studies the weather. That is, the time it will do at a given moment. However, climatology is the study of the evolution of the values of all the atmospheric variables mentioned above over time. If you'd like to delve deeper into the difference between meteorology and climatology, you can consult this article.
The set of values is what makes up the climate of an area. If we analyze horizontally, a model can be either global, covering the entire Earth, or regional, in which case it only covers a portion of the planet. If you'd like to learn more about how climate change affects meteorology, you can read about meteorological instruments and their function.
Operation of meteorological models
The meteorological models of distributing data that are obtained through different sources. These dates They are obtained from radiosonde, meteorological satellites and meteorological observations. All these observations are unevenly distributed and are able to process those given by assimilation and analysis methods. These analysis methods are capable of establishing various parameters based on the values of the atmospheric variables. All these values are usable by mathematical algorithms that are used in these meteorological models.
Thanks to these models, calculations can be made with certain mathematical equations that use the data obtained and are available at this time. Thanks to these data, estimates can be obtained on the rates at which the values of the atmospheric variables change. The rhythms in these changes they allow predicting the state of the atmosphere within a short period of time in the future. To better understand phenomena such as storms, you can read more about the arrival of new storms. Also, if you want to know more about cumulonimbus clouds, which are clouds related to meteorological phenomena, will be useful to you.
This is one of the reasons why meteorological models based on this data become less viable and accurate as time goes on. That is, the further into the future we try to measure and estimate the atmospheric situation, the less accurate our values will be.
Model variants
Since there are many types of meteorological models, there are great variations between them. A large number of models have been developed by various agencies and bodies that are dedicated to studying meteorology. These same organizations are the ones that implement methodological diversities in order to forecast the evolution of meteorological variables. Among these models we have the best known as the Global Prediction System of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States (NOAA).
There are also other types of models that are less well-known but are equally used for this prediction. We have the ECMWF. This is the European Medium-Range Forecast model, issued by this center to which 23 European states belong, including Spain. Each of them has a primary objective: weather prediction, although they use different techniques. To better understand how extreme events are generated, you could read about the comparison of extreme weather phenomena.
Another well-known model is that of the AVN. It is the American model of Aviation. Its modeling covers at least five hours to predict the flight duration. This ensures that it will be completed without any interference.
Climate controllers and weather models
Climate controllers are basically the factors that influence the global climate. As we know, the sum of the values of the atmospheric variables over time is what establishes the climate of a region and of the whole world. Therefore, these climate controllers are essential when establishing meteorological models.
Let's see in more depth what are the meteorological variables that are studied in meteorological models:
- Temperature: Temperature is one of the variables that most influences climate and meteorology. These values fluctuate due to the angle of the sun's rays on the Earth's surface.
- Humidity: Humidity is the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere. Humidity allows for precipitation and cooler conditions. If you're interested, learn more about Humidity and its role in meteorology.
- Wind: winds move as a function of atmospheric pressure. Its main engine is the solar radiation that falls on the surface of the earth.
- Atmospheric pressure: it is one of the main engines of precipitation globally. Pressure changes occur with modifications in the amount of solar radiation that hits the earth's surface. As a result, points with a low atmospheric pressure and others with a high pressure are established. At low pressure points there are storms where intense precipitation forms and at high pressure points there is a good temperature and good weather.
- Solar radiation: is the amount of sunlight that hits the earth's surface.
I hope that with this information you can learn more about meteorological models and how they work.