A key aspect when examining global trends is population growth. Fluctuations in population numbers across regions have important economic, social and environmental consequences. Insights into future population redistribution and which nations will be key on the world stage can be gained from the most populous countries today and their projections for 2050 and 2100.
Countries with the largest population in 2024
According to the latest projections by the United Nations, the world's population is around 8.162 billion people. However, this population is not evenly distributed across the planet. A limited number of countries account for a large proportion of the world's inhabitants.
- India is expected to, with a population of 1.451 million inhabitants, is expected to become the most populous country by 2024, overtaking China due to continued population growth and a fertility rate that, despite declining, remains higher than that of many other countries.
- China, with a population of 1.419 billion, has held the title of most populous nation for many years; however, it is now experiencing a decline in its numbers attributed to a low fertility rate and an increasingly aging population. To better understand the effects of demographic change, see the impact of population growth on sea levels.
- United States, with 345 million inhabitants, remains the third most populous country, benefiting from immigration and maintaining a moderate fertility rate compared to other developed countries, despite its slower growth.
- With a population of 283 million, Indonesia remains the largest country in Southeast Asia, making steady progress despite a recent decline in its fertility rate.
- Pakistan, with a population of 251 million, has experienced rapid population growth, placing it among the five most populous nations in the world today.
- Meanwhile, Nigeria, The most populous nation in Africa with 233 million inhabitants, is experiencing significant population growth driven by high fertility rates and a growing youth demographic.
Countries with the largest populations in 2050
Looking ahead to 2050, demographic projections indicate substantial shifts in the rankings of the most populous nations. The world's population is projected to reach 9.664 billion people, with a significant portion of this increase originating in developing nations, particularly in Africa and Asia.
- India is projected to, with A population of 1.680 billion, it will maintain its status as the most populous nation in 2050, despite a significant reduction in its growth rate attributed to declining fertility.
- Meanwhile, China, currently home to 1.260 billion people, will take second place, although its population is expected to have declined dramatically due to years of birth control measures and an increasingly aging population. For a deeper look into future projections, see the influence of climate change on populations.
- The United States has 381 million people. Thanks to steady immigration and a stable fertility rate, the United States is expected to maintain its position.
- Pakistan with 372 million people, due to rapid population growth.
- Nigeria, with a population of 359 million, is set to become Africa's most populous nation, with one of the fastest growth rates in the world, as its population is projected to nearly double over the next 30 years.
- Meanwhile, Indonesia, with 320 million people, will remain among the most populous nations, but its growth rate is expected to slow significantly.
- Democratic Republic of the Congo with 218 million people. This African nation is poised for substantial population growth, driven by a youthful demographic and a high birth rate.
- Ethiopia with 225 million people. In the coming decades, Ethiopia will become one of the most populous nations in Africa, experiencing rapid expansion.
Countries with the largest population in 2100
Projections for the year 2100 indicate significant changes in the distribution of the world's population. By that year, the total number of people worldwide is expected to reach 10.180 billion, although certain areas may experience very low or even negative growth rates. The continent of Africa is projected to grow the fastest, while both Asia and Europe are projected to experience population declines.
India, with a population of 1.505 billion, is projected to experience a small decline by 2100; however, it will remain the world's most populous nation. In contrast, China, home to 632 million people, is expected to face significant population decline as a result of low birth rates and an aging population, eventually falling to second place. To better understand how population may vary across regions, see the role of climate change in population distribution. Pakistan, with a population of 511 million, is set to maintain its growth trajectory, becoming the world's third most populous nation by 2100. Meanwhile, Nigeria, which Currently home to 477 million people, the world will also experience significant expansion.
The Democratic Republic of the Congo, with 431 million people, is projected to experience rapid growth, ranking among the most populous countries in Africa. The United States will have 421 million people. While population growth in the United States will be more gradual compared to other nations, it will still see an increase, driven primarily by immigration. To analyze future trends, see the impact of climate change on migration.
Ethiopia, with a population of 367 million, is projected to will experience substantial growth, positioning itself as one of the most populous nations in the world by 2100. On the other hand, Indonesia, with 296 million people, is expected to see a slight decline in its population by the end of the century, but will still remain among the top ten most populous countries.
