Due to climate change and the increase in global average temperatures we are having different changes in the atmospheric and oceanic patterns. In this case, the Atlantic Ocean is warning of the changes it is undergoing due to climate change. The storms in the Atlantic they are increasing and with them the formation of hurricanes and hurricane force winds.
In this article, we'll tell you what causes the increase in storms in the Atlantic and what the consequences of climate change are for an increasingly tropicalized Atlantic Ocean.
Storms in the Atlantic
The Atlantic Ocean is warning. This is a summary of the changes in atmospheric dynamics observed in recent years that affect the north of Macaronesia, an area that includes the Azores, the Canary Islands, Madeira and desert islands, and the southwest of the Iberian Peninsula. Everything points to the region's climate turning tropical.
Since the historic arrival in 2005 of tropical storm Delta to the Canary Islands, the number of tropical cyclones that pass through these regions has increased significantly in the last 15 years. These cyclones are areas of severe low pressure climate and do not exhibit the typical behavior of mid-latitude storms or extratropical cyclones that we are used to in this part of the planet. Instead, they exhibit characteristics more similar to the typical tropical cyclones that normally affect the Caribbean on the other side of the Atlantic.
In fact, these phenomena are increasingly resembling tropical cyclones in structure and nature. So much so that the U.S. National Hurricane Center has increased research and monitoring of our basin in recent years, and has named a significant group of these phenomena. Furthermore, it is important to note that the climate change is generating significant consequences in the way these storms develop, as has also been evidenced in the increasing storm activity in other regions.
Increased storms in the Atlantic
The anomaly mentioned above has increased in the last five years. We have some notable examples:
- Hurricane Alex (2016) It occurred in the south of the Azores, approximately 1.000 km from the Canary Islands. With maximum sustained winds of 140 kilometers per hour, it reaches hurricane status and sails in an unusual way across the North Atlantic. It became the first hurricane to form in January since 1938.
- Hurricane Ophelia (2017), the first Saffir-Simpson Category 3 hurricane in the eastern Atlantic since records began (1851). Ophelia achieved maximum sustained winds of more than 170 kilometers per hour.
- Hurricane Leslie (2018), the first hurricane to arrive so close to the peninsular coast (100 km). It hit Portugal at dawn with winds of up to 190 kilometers per hour.
- Hurricane Pablo (2019), the closest hurricane ever formed in Europe.
- Like its last high tide, Tropical Storm Theta threatened the Canary Islands, just 300 kilometers from fully affecting the islands.
In addition to these cases, there is a long list of them, as they are extremely anomalous and affect the aforementioned areas. Thus, the frequency has increased to once a year in the last five years, and even to more than once in the last two years. Before 2005, the frequency was once every three or four years, without posing a significant risk of impact. This transformation can also be related to a global warming which directly affects the coasts and as it has been mentioned in various projections on the active hurricane season in the Atlantic.
Anomalies in the 2020 season
This rarity is consistent with what happens during the hurricane season from June to November this year. Predictions already point to a very active season culminating in 30 cyclones, a true record. That means naming them using the Greek alphabet, beyond the historical 2005 season.
On the other hand, the season is also characterized by major active hurricanes of Category 3 or higher. In fact, it joins the first four seasons for the first time since records began (1851) that at least one Category 5 hurricane has formed in five consecutive seasons. The latter is very consistent with projections of climate change and the increase in storms in the Atlantic, with it being evident that the most intense hurricanes are proportionally stronger and more frequent, as seen in the analysis of the recent historic season.
Climate change studies
It should be noted that the increase in storms in the Atlantic and the tropicalization of this part of the world are related to the effects of climate change. The answer is yes, but more research is needed.On the one hand, we need to know the relationship with observed events, and in Spain we do not yet have the technical capacity to conduct the type of operational attribution studies performed in other countries. What we can establish is a relationship based on studies of projections of future climate scenarios that assume these phenomena occur more frequently in our basins. Furthermore, it is important to mention that the adaptation of plants to climate change also plays a role in interacting with these extreme weather phenomena.
This is where we can build relationships, although more research is needed to identify and further refine the specifics of these future events in order to improve planning for adaptation to anticipated climate change. While it is true that it is possible that never reach higher intensities such as category 3 or higherHurricanes and minor tropical storms are also a matter of particular concern due to their great impact on the US coast and it must be added that in Spain we were not fully prepared for this.
Another characteristic to consider is that they present greater uncertainty in their forecasts. Unlike the tropics, where cyclone paths are influenced by more predictable factors, as these cyclones begin to approach our mid-latitudes, they become influenced by less predictable factors, with the consequent increase in uncertainty.
Another important aspect is the potential for greatest impact when they begin to evolve into mid-latitude storms, a transition known as the extratropical transition, which can cause them to expand their range.
Finally, it is important to also take into account the possible uncertainty in the trends inherent in the phenomenon we are talking about. While all these changes are always considered in reference to historical records from 1851, it is in fact from 1966 that these records can be considered really as solid and comparable as those of our current era, because that is the beginning of what is possible. Observe them with satellites. Therefore, this should always be kept in mind when analyzing trends observed in tropical cyclones and hurricanes.
I hope that with this information you can learn more about the causes of the increase in storms in the Atlantic.
