The average temperature of planet Earth could exceed 1,5 degrees centigrade temperature much earlier than expected: by 2026, according to a study conducted by scientists from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science at the University of Melbourne (Australia), and published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.
If it happens, it would be because the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (IPO), which is a natural climate controller, go into a positive or warm phase, accelerating global warming.
What is the IPO?
In this climatic phenomenon of interaction between the atmosphere and the ocean that occurs between the parallels 50º North and 50º South of the Pacific. It has two phases: a positive phase, during which high temperatures are recorded, and a negative phase. The first typically lasts between 1 and 5 years, while the second can last up to 40 years or more. During the positive phase of the IPO, global warming can accelerate, generating devastating effects on the climate and ecosystems. Furthermore, in this context, it is important to understand the origin of global warming y the differences between climate change and global warming.
Is it related to global warming?
In recent years, from 2014 to 2016, there have been temperature records that suggest that The warm phase it is currently in could be associated with these records being set. Still, Ben Henley, one of the study's authors, said that Even if it is in a negative phase, their research shows that the 1,5ºC barrier is likely to be broken in 2026. This concern coincides with the Global warming effects which are being observed on a global level, highlighting the importance of addressing this problem urgently.
To avoid it, governments will have to implement policies that not only reduce emissions, but also remove carbon from the atmosphere, Henley noted. This statement highlights the need for a much more aggressive approach to combating climate change, as well as the importance of international collaboration in this effort. World leaders must recognize that inaction now will have devastating consequences later, similar to what was pointed out in Clean air and its implications for global warming.
If it is not achieved, the melting of the poles will cause the level to rise, the deserts will become more arid, and severe droughts could be experienced in the southwestern United States and Mexico. The situation will be even more critical if we consider that extreme weather events, such as storms, droughts, and floods, will continue to increase in frequency and intensity, impacting millions of people and altering entire ecosystems. It should also be noted that forest floors They have a role in this context, as they contribute to climate regulation.
Below are some of the most significant climate impacts related to global warming:
- Melting of glaciersThe loss of ice at the poles and mountain glaciers severely impacts freshwater reserves and contributes to rising sea levels.
- extreme weather eventsAs the average global temperature increases, so do the frequency and intensity of events such as hurricanes, floods, and heat waves.
- Alteration of ecosystems: Fauna and flora are at risk due to changes in their natural habitats, which can lead to mass extinctions.
- Impact on agricultureClimate variations impact growing seasons, threatening global food security.
The acceleration of global warming also translates into negative effects on human health, as increases in respiratory and cardiovascular diseases have been observed due to pollution and changes in weather patterns. This challenge is one we must address, as indicated in Forest fires and their relationship to global warming.
The impact on the Arctic
The Arctic is one of the regions that suffers most from the effects of global warming, where it has been estimated that the temperature anomaly may be three times higher than the world averageThis phenomenon not only affects local wildlife, such as reindeer and seabirds, but also impacts the global climate due to the release of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, that occurs when permafrost melts. This phenomenon is a clear example of how sea level is rising faster than previously thought, with potentially disastrous consequences.
Furthermore, the loss of sea ice alters habitats, causing species displacement and affecting food chains. This change in ecosystem dynamics also disrupts the diet of Indigenous communities that depend on hunting and fishing, highlighting the vulnerability of these populations.
The role of El Niño
A key question is how natural phenomena like El Niño influence global warming. El Niño is a natural meteorological phenomenon associated with an unusual warming of the surface waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean., which can affect the climate not only in South America, but worldwide. Its occurrence can be an important factor in the temporary increase in temperatures. In this sense, events related to El Niño are directly linked to natural atmospheric particles that affect global warming.
For example, in 2016, during an El Niño year, exceptionally high global temperatures were recorded. As climate change continues, the intensity and frequency of these El Niño events are expected to increase, potentially leading to a further increase in global warming, a fact that is a cause for concern, similar to what is mentioned in the increase in flooding in the future.
Necessary actions
To mitigate these risks, it is essential to implement effective policies at the global level. This includes:
- Emission reduction: Nations must commit to drastically reducing their greenhouse gas emissions.
- Investments in renewable energies: A transition to sustainable energy sources is required to reduce dependence on fossil fuels, as mentioned in effective measures to curb global warming.
- Education and awareness: The population must be informed about the effects of climate change and how they can contribute to mitigation.
Furthermore, international cooperation is crucial to share technologies and resources that help developing nations adapt to the effects of climate change and transition to low-carbon economies. To achieve this, it is essential to consider how Global warming could alter lightning.
Global warming is already having tangible effects on the planet, but it is still possible to reverse the course if decisive and swift action is taken. Recent research results underscore the urgency of acting quickly to avoid irreversible consequences for the Earth.
