El Niño is a weather phenomenon that changes the movement patterns of ocean currents . It recurs every 3 to 7 years, but it is believed that due to global warming, it will become increasingly noticeable worldwide.
A few decades ago, around 1997, it was very devastating . However, NASA believes that the 2016 one may be even bigger and more powerful, to the point that they have called it "Godzilla."
What is the El Niño phenomenon and what does it consist of?
This phenomenon is related to the warming of the Pacific Ocean , which warms by 1 to 3°C above normal every 3 to 7 years. This oscillating warming and cooling pattern is known as the ENSO cycle. It directly affects rainfall patterns in tropical areas but can have a significant influence on climate in other parts of the world. Both El Niño (related to warming) and La Niña (related to cooling) are the extreme phases of the ENSO cycle. There is also a third phase called Neutral, during which temperatures are normal.
History of El Niño
The name El Niño (referring to the Christ Child) was given by Peruvian fishermen to a warm current that appears every year around Christmas , bringing abundant fish. They considered it a divine gift and soon began to identify this change in ocean temperature as El Niño.
However, in the 60s, it became clear that this wasn't a local phenomenon in Peru, but rather that it affected the entire tropical Pacific, and even beyond. Currently, it's known that it can affect the climate of the entire world throughout its cycle. The entire ENSO cycle lasts between 3 and 7 years , as we've mentioned. During these years, there are warm phases lasting between 8 and 10 months each (El Niño), neutral phases, and there can also be a cold phase (La Niña). ENSO is a highly variable cycle, both in intensity and duration. In fact, the causes of these changes are still not fully understood.
El Niño detection systems
El Niño is detected using various methods, including satellites, floating buoys, and ocean analysis . Researchers are continuously gathering data on sea surface conditions and wind patterns in the equatorial region.
How does it influence the weather?
Once developed, significant changes occur in temperatures and rainfall patterns across many parts of the globe. These changes happen because they affect wind patterns in the atmosphere . In the tropics, the air that rises to form rain clouds in one place must move to another location due to gravity. In the rest of the world, these wind changes can also cause droughts in some areas and torrential rains in others.
To understand the extent to which it can influence the global climate, let's look at its consequences:
Globally
- Records Of temperature
- Appearance of diseases difficult to eradicate
- Lost of animal and plant species
- Exchanges in atmospheric circulation
South America
- Periods very humid, during which the rains are very intense.
- Heating of the Humboldt Current.
- Decreased atmospheric pressure.
Southeast Asia
- Droughts documents.
- Ocean temperature baja.
- Limited cloud formation.
However, it's important to keep in mind that no two El Niño events are the same , and that seasonal changes and different weather patterns can vary from one event to another. Therefore, when it develops, it's not guaranteed that the affected areas will be the same as last time; there will simply be a higher probability, but it's not certain that they will be the same again.
The Child »Godzilla»
As the planet warms, it favors the formation of more and more powerful cyclones . Warm temperatures directly influence El Niño, so we are undoubtedly in for some very active years . In the Northern Hemisphere, 2016 saw higher than usual temperatures: the North Pole reached 2°C, compared to the normal -26°C. Meanwhile, in the Southern Hemisphere, specifically in Sonora, Mexico, snow fell for the first time in 33 years. In Latin America, abundant rainfall during the first quarter of the year was the defining feature of that part of the world.
In addition to the thermometers, experts also looked at the height of the Pacific Ocean . As you can see in the image, the situation in '97 is almost identical to what we had at the end of 2015.
According to NASA, El Niño 2016 shows no signs of dissipating. Normally, its effects are felt in the Northern Hemisphere throughout the spring, but diminish as the months go by. But this time it's likely to be different.
The consequences will be felt especially in South America, but "no matter where you live, you will feel the effects of the phenomenon," said NASA.
There's little that can be done about this phenomenon. The best advice is to try to adapt as best as possible and pay attention to weather warnings to avoid problems.