The El NiƱo phenomenon has been analyzed for decades using a statistical pattern that reflects the influence of meteorological variables on its recurring cycles. However, a new study developing a physical model based on seismicity levels and high prediction accuracy suggests that the El NiƱo phenomenon should be re-evaluated.
The title of this study is called "The missing link in the generation of the El NiƱo phenomenon" and has been prepared by the Spanish scientist Fernando Mato and the Greek Theofilos Toulkeridis, and published in its latest edition by the specialized journal "Science of Tsunami Hazards ". Do you want to know what this study is about?
Mysteries of El NiƱo
According to the authors of this research, they have identified one of the main causes of this climatic phenomenon. Until now, its workings once it begins were understood, but predicting it has always been very difficult. This finding is crucial for a better understanding of the El NiƱo phenomenon and its implications for global meteorology.
"This discovery that for the first time gives the origin of the El NiƱo phenomenon, represents a paradigm shift in everything that was preconceived and in turn in global climate models," explained Fernando Mato, PhD in Telecommunications from the University of Vigo ( Spain) and Prometheus researcher at the ESPE Armed Forces University of Quito.
Relationship between seismic activity
Since this type of phenomenon began to be studied, studies have focused on relating these events to the surface temperature of the oceans, the atmosphere or pressure. However, the key to the discovery has been to rethink this model.
Seismic relationships have been studied, and a clear correlation has been found between a significant increase in seismic activity in regions located on the Pacific Plate (originating from earthquakes at its boundaries) and the occurrence of the El NiƱo phenomenon. This finding may help to better understand how the phenomenon occurs, as discussed in the article analyzing compliance with the Paris Agreement and its relationship to climate phenomena.
"The Pacific belt agglutinates around 90 percent of seismic activity at a global level and there are studies in the past that found certain correlations, but they did not demonstrate precisely what that relationship was," says the researcher.
āWe studied the interior of the Pacific Plate and discovered a correlation between the El NiƱo phenomenon, when it occurs strongly or very strongly, and the increase in seismicity in certain areas,ā he explained.
Increased seismic activity in the Pacific Ocean produces large plumes of magma that rise to the surface of the ocean floor. These plumes have temperatures between 400 and 1200 degrees Celsius and extend for almost 800 kilometers.
Thanks to this study, it has been guaranteed that there will not be an El NiƱo phenomenon recently since the right conditions are not in place for it to occur.
