It is increasingly likely that the Paris Agreement will not be enough to curb global warming. This agreement, adopted in 2015, was a critical step in the fight against climate change, with the intention of limiting the increase in global temperature to less than 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels, with efforts to restrict it to 1.5 degrees. However, recent research published in 'Nature Climate Change' by a team of scientists from the University of Washington reveals that there is a There is a 90% chance that by the end of the century, the average temperature of the planet will increase by between 2 and 5 degrees Celsius..
This represents a much more serious scenario than what the Paris Agreement seeks to prevent, opening the door to a series of adverse effects that could include extreme droughts, famines and an increased incidence of natural disasters. In addition, it is important to mention how the climate change and global warming are interrelated issues that require urgent attention, as well as the importance of understanding the origin of global warming to address this crisis.
Dargan Frierson, co-author of the study, stated that the idea of limiting the increase to just 2 degrees is very optimistic. He suggests that without drastic measures to change the current course, we could face catastrophic consequences, including severe damage from weather events, droughts, extreme temperatures, and significant sea level rise.Our results show that it is necessary to make a drastic change of course if the objectives of only increasing the temperature by 1.5 degrees are to be achieved.».
To develop these predictions, the researchers ran computer simulations based on 50 years of global climate observations, also taking into account the oceans' capacity to absorb carbon dioxide (CO2). They also integrated data on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of various nations, which measures the amount of CO2 emitted for each dollar produced in their economies. This approach allowed them to formulate different scenarios of what could happen if current trends continue or if countries implement effective policies to reduce the use of fossil fuels.
Adrian Raftery, the study's first author, says that while the Paris Agreement's goals are realistic, they do not appear to be sufficient given the projection that the global population will exceed 10 billion by the end of the century. This means that even if population growth is more concentrated in African countries, Unless significant efforts are made to reduce emissions, the climate will be radically different from today. The floods in the future could be a clear example of these differences.
Therefore, the urgent need to change our policies and ways of life is clearer than ever. Solutions include the transition to renewable energy and the development of new technologies that facilitate a rapid reduction in greenhouse gas emissions., such as those raised in convert greenhouse gases into stones. In this sense, the scientific community and political leaders must cooperate more closely to address this global challenge. A clear example of this action is the program being implemented in German, where the tangible effects of climate change are being experienced.
The severity of the climate crisis we face cannot be underestimated. Every small increase in the planet's average temperature has a significant impact on the global and local climate. For example, changes in temperature are directly linked to the increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. With every additional tenth of a degree of warming, the likelihood of events like these increases. heat waves, droughts, and floods.
Below are some of the most visible impacts of global warming:
- Rising sea levels: Melting glaciers and rising ocean temperatures are causing sea levels to rise, threatening coastal communities and marine ecosystems, a phenomenon best understood by analyzing sea level rise.
- Disappearance of ecosystems: Coral reefs and natural habitats that depend on certain temperature ranges are in danger, and biodiversity loss is accelerating.
- Impacts on agriculture: Changes in precipitation patterns and extreme temperatures are affecting food production, potentially leading to food insecurity. To understand how agriculture is facing these challenges, you can read more about conservation agriculture.
- Public health: Rising temperatures are linked to the growth of vector-borne diseases and other public health problems, a topic that coincides with what is mentioned in the increase in diseases.
Climate science continues to advance, providing increasingly accurate data on global warming trends. For example, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the average temperature of the Earth's surface last year was the highest on record, with an increase of 1.1 °C since the pre-industrial era. Furthermore, all recent UN reports suggest that the only way to avoid an increase of more than 2°C is Act now to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which can also be seen when studying Forest fires and their relationship.
The goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C has been set by most signatory countries to the Paris Agreement, and although current commitments are proving insufficient, there is hope in acting together. The adoption of ambitious climate policies at the international level, as well as investment in clean and sustainable technologies, are crucial steps in this fight. Coordination between wealthy and developing countries is essential to ensure a just and effective transition, providing support to those who need it most. For more information on the perception of climate change, see the article on Europeans' perception of climate change.
Climate change is a monumental challenge that requires a coordinated and urgent response. The global community must work together to implement the necessary actions to halt rising temperatures and protect our planet for future generations. As the end of this century approaches, it will be critical that every decision made now count. The survival of numerous species, the stability of ecosystems, and the quality of life of millions of people depend on our commitment and immediate action.
