Antarctica is such a cold continent that very few people have been able to visit it, and even fewer are fortunate enough to have set foot on one of its glaciers, such as Thwaites, located in the western part of the continent. One of the few who has had this privilege is Knut Christianson, a glaciologist at the University of Washington (United States), who studies it in order to predict the consequences of its melting globally.
What has been discovered so far seems more like an apocalyptic story than reality, but it's certainly thought-provoking. According to Ohio glaciologist Ian Howat, "if there's going to be a climate catastrophe, it's most likely going to start at Thwaites." But why?
The Antarctic ice melts in a similar way to a house of cards; that is, remains stable until pushed. Although this process won't happen overnight, within a matter of decades, the loss of Thwaites Glacier will destabilize the remaining ice on the western part of the continent. Once it does, will endanger all those who live less than 80 miles from the coast, which means that almost half of the world's population will be affected.
Projections suggest that sea levels could rise by up to three meters in many parts of the world, and up to four meters in coastal areas like New York and Boston.
How long before this happens? Right now, the continent, which used to be at rest, "is now moving," said Mark Serreze, director of the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center. In 2002, the Larsen B ice shelf melted, helping the glaciers behind it flow into the sea up to eight times faster than before. A similar situation could occur with the Larsen C platform, which has a 160-kilometer crack. In addition, the Larsen C thaw is a growing concern, and is linked to the general instability of the ice in the region.
According to simulations conducted by Eric Rignot of NASA and Ian Joughin of the University of Washington, The destabilization process is already underway on the Thwaites Glacier.
Antarctica is not only facing the challenge of melting glaciers, but is also being affected by rising temperatures. Recent research has shown that Antarctic winter sea ice has reached its lowest record, one million square kilometers below 2022 levels, a size larger than Egypt, according to the United Nations Environment Program.
These changes have had a significant impact on local wildlife. "Due to the rapid decline in sea ice, emperor penguins experienced unprecedented reproductive failure last year, posing a serious threat to the Antarctic ecosystem," the agency warned. Satellite images obtained by the US National Snow and Ice Data Center show that the maximum extent of ice surrounding Antarctica has reached its lowest point ever recorded.
The previous record was set in 1986, when the maximum annual extent of Antarctic sea ice reached 17.99 million square kilometers. In September 2023, a maximum annual extent of only 16.96 million square kilometers was recorded. The loss of sea ice is alarming and requires urgent attention.
Experts emphasize that the melting of West Antarctica and the resulting sea level rise is now "inevitable." However, a study indicates that keeping global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius would cause this process to occur less rapidly, giving coastal communities up to 50 years to adapt. To better understand this issue, you can visit the article on what happens when the ice melts in Antarctica.
Simulations carried out by the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) indicate that the melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet and the resulting sea level rise is no longer a question of "if," but rather "how quickly." The authors, Kaitlin Naughten, Paul Holland, and Jan De Rydt, used a UK national supercomputer to make these projections. In the best-case scenario, with a global temperature rise of just 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels, melting will increase three times faster than during the XNUMXth century, resulting in a global sea level rise of around five meters, affecting millions of people living near the coast.
Furthermore, the melting of Antarctic ice will not only accelerate the rise in sea level, but will also alter the main ocean currents that regulate the world's climate and will have a negative impact on East Antarctica, where around 90% of the continent's ice is stored. This could lead to severe climate changes, with global consequences. Therefore, melting of Antarctica is in a critical state that affects everyone.
According to Naughten, "Our data indicate that we have lost control of the melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. To have preserved it in a state similar to what it was decades ago, we would have needed to act on climate change years ago." However, the fact that we can predict this situation in advance gives humanity more time to adapt to the impending sea level rise, which is vital for preparing communities.
The key lies in the reaction of coastal communities. With 50 years' notice to adapt, There is considerable opportunity to mitigate the damageThis may include relocating vulnerable populations and renovating critical infrastructure in flood-prone areas. However, this does not eliminate the need to reduce emissions to prevent the effects of flooding. of climate change be even more extreme.
A particularly alarming aspect of Antarctica's melting ice is how it is changing the region's ecology. As the ice melts, freshwater lakes are forming in areas previously covered by glaciers. These lakes can influence the way water flows across the continent and into the sea, potentially changing the ecosystem's climate. ocean currents and, consequently, the global climateTo delve deeper into this effect, we invite you to read about the formation of blue lakes in Antarctica.
Changes in ecology are also affecting fauna and flora. With rising temperatures, species such as penguins, seals, and other animals that depend on sea ice are being severely affected. The loss of their natural habitat could lead to the extinction of several species and an imbalance in the Antarctic ecosystem. The situation is worrying and requires urgent attention.
Color change in Antarctica has also been the subject of study. Recent research has indicated that the Antarctic Peninsula is experiencing an increase in vegetation cover, a striking phenomenon that reflects the impact of climate change. In 1986, vegetation cover was less than one square kilometer, and today it has grown to almost 12 square kilometers. This increase is mostly moss, accompanied by lichens and species adapted to extreme cold.
Scientists have noted that the temperature increase in the region has been faster than the global average, allowing vegetation thrives in a historically inhospitable environmentThis phenomenon not only represents a landscape change but also has significant ecological repercussions. The formation of soil from the decomposition of plant matter opens the door to colonization by other plants and, potentially, invasive species. This could drastically alter local biodiversity and the ecological dynamics of the region.
Increased vegetation cover also affects the region's albedo, its ability to reflect sunlight. Dark surfaces absorb more solar energy, which could accelerate local and global warming. This aspect is crucial when addressing climate change. climate change from multiple angles, including the conservation of fragile ecosystems and the management of invasive species.
Antarctica faces an uncertain future, but the information gathered by scientists provides a basis for action. International cooperation is crucial to addressing these challenges, and the implementation of effective policies will be essential to mitigate the effects of climate change in the region. Undoubtedly, understanding the melting ice in Antarctica is essential to protect our planet.
It is imperative that we take action now. Not only to protect Antarctica, but to preserve the integrity of our planet. The sensitivity of vegetation on the Antarctic Peninsula to climate change is now evident, and in the future, with anthropogenic warming, we could witness fundamental changes in the biology and landscape of this iconic and vulnerable region.
