Plants and animals, including our species, humans, require thousands, even millions, of years to adapt to new environmental conditions. In this context, current climate change poses an unprecedented challenge, given that we are accelerating the process of change in ways that previously took millennia. This phenomenon has led many experts to claim that we are experiencing what some call the sixth mass extinction.
The planet's biodiversity is in a critical state. Many animal and plant species are disappearing or are at imminent risk of extinction. According to recent estimates, by the end of this century, planet Earth will look radically different unless effective measures are implemented to mitigate this process. Ecologist Marten Scheffer, winner of the BBVA Foundation Frontiers of Knowledge Award, warned in a interview than "With climate change, we are going to need new places to live"This statement underscores the urgency of reflecting on how humanity will be affected in the future.
The Earth doesn't need humanity; in fact, if we were ever to become extinct, the planet would still exist. However, we depend on the planet until we manage to colonize other celestial bodies. Until that happens, we will witness coral reefs bleach and die as the oceans become more acidic, and tropical forests lose species at an alarming rate. According to Scheffer, trees grow by adapting to their local conditions. However, if these conditions change drastically, the adaptive capacity of many species is compromised. The adaptive capacity of life is at stake.
The impact on ecosystems and agriculture
A tropical forest cannot be sustained with less than 1500 mm of precipitation per year. However, deforestation and misuse of natural resources are upsetting this balance. Furthermore, to produce food for a growing human population, unsustainable practices are being used, including massive deforestation and the use of synthetic chemicals in agriculture, which not only damage the soil, but also weaken the plants themselvesThis dangerous cycle compromises food production, affecting not only wildlife but also our health. In the context of food production, it is critical to consider how drought in various regions affects food security and is related to the forced displacement due to climate change, especially in places that are suffering the effects of climate change.
Climate change not only affects biodiversity, but is also closely related to other global problemsFor example, humanity faces wars, famines, and water shortages in many regions of the world. These factors intertwine and exacerbate the challenge of resettling people who migrate in search of a better life on an increasingly overcrowded planet.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has projected that by 2050 more than one billion people could be exposed to climate risks, such as rising sea levels, floods, and droughts. Without effective measures to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions, an estimated 216 million people will be forcibly displaced within their countries by 2050, according to the World Bank. This displacement, linked to the forced displacement due to climate change, is a phenomenon that resonates with the critical situation faced by places like Sudan, where climate change has led to uninhabitable conditions. This scenario can also be observed in cities that could disappear due to global warming.
Forced displacement and climate justice
Climate migrations are reaching unprecedented proportions, with the forced displacement of millions of people worldwide. In 2022, 32.6 million people were displaced, a 41% increase compared to the average of the last ten years. Of these, approximately 70% seek refuge in neighboring countries, as they prefer to remain as close as possible to their homes and families, whether to escape conflict or natural disasters. In this context, it is necessary to delve deeper into how communities seek to adapt and survive, as well as the role of the climate change on the displacement of people.
People displaced for reasons unrelated to disasters, including refugees and internally displaced persons, are often in environments vulnerable to climate change. In places like the Sahel, where displacement crisis worsens, nearly three million people have had to leave their homes due to violence and conflict exacerbated by climate change. This highlights the need to address these crises, which in many cases are interlinked with the forced displacement due to climate change and vulnerability of certain groups.
The Director of the International Organization for Migration, Dina Ionesco, has stated that environmental changes related to climate change are likely to significantly alter the human settlement patternsThis reality underscores the need to address social justice and existing inequalities in the context of climate change. The poorest are often the most affected, as lack the necessary resources to adapt or prepare for these changesAntónio Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations, highlighted this injustice: "The poorest have a right to be angry. They are suffering from an unprovoked climate crisis and broken financial promises."
Understanding climate change as a "threat multiplier" is essential. This perspective is fundamental to managing the current crisis, as beyond immediate solutions, a commitment to reducing the root causes of conflicts related to land and resources is required.
The role of international policies
The impact of climate change on migration requires a collective action at a global levelInternational policies must focus on climate justice and the creation of frameworks that enable the most vulnerable communities to adapt and be resilient. The focus on justice is crucial, especially in contexts where climate change is destroying habitats, as has been observed in The great coral barrier.
The United Nations has highlighted the importance of integrating climate change into development agendas, noting that solutions must consider a human rights perspective that addresses the needs of displaced populations. The Conferences of the Parties (COPs) should serve as spaces for effective decision-making and contribute to the creation of policies that promote sustainable development and social justice. Furthermore, it is vital to emphasize that the Green infrastructure could improve resilience in vulnerable communities.
To achieve this, a commitment to actions that seek is required. reduce the underlying causes of conflicts, especially in the most affected regions. The implementation of support programs that strengthen the adaptive capacity of these communities is essential to mitigate the impact of climate change on migration. This context resonates especially with the situation facing Vanuatu, the region of the world most vulnerable to climate change.
Furthermore, establishing links between local, national, and international organizations to address climate change as a global phenomenon is essential. This approach will create support networks that enhance the resilience of communities and foster their capacity to respond to environmental crises. The climate reality in the world shows that even places like United States make decisions that affect the global state of the environment.
The situation facing humanity is complex and multifaceted, with climate change driving forced migration. It is necessary to adopt a comprehensive and collaborative approach that addresses the underlying causes of the crisis, thus ensuring a more sustainable and fair future for all.
